Wednesday, May 09, 2012

The Philippines tops foreign inflows among TIPs in 2010

Comparative Foreign Inflows to the Philippine Stock Exchange (ALLPI, PSEi) , Jakarta Composite Index , and Stock Exchange of Thailand  for the year 2010

Philippine Stock Exchange
Foreign Inflows:  $ 2.77 billion.
2010 All Shares Index Performance:  Up 56 %.
2010 PSEi Performance:  Up 38 %.

Jakarta Composite Index
Foreign Inflows:  $ 2.18 billion.
2010 Performance:  Up 46 %.

Stock Exchange of Thailand:
Foreign Inflows:  $ 1.9 billion.
2010 Performance:  Up 40 %.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

Morgan Stanley favors TIPs over BRICs

Ruchir Sharma, the head of Morgan Stanley’s Emerging Markets favors TIPs over BRICs

Ruchir Sharma, the head of Morgan Stanley’s Emerging Markets says rapid growth can’t be sustained and it’s time to look for the next decade’s big growers for big returns. For the last decade it’s all about “BRICs” or Brazil, Russia, India and China, but after a decade of rapid growth, the world’s most celebrated emerging markets are poised to slow down.

In his interviews, Mr. Sharma, defines a “Breakout Nation” as:
a. a country that is able to beat expectations in terms of growth rate
b. a country that’s able to grow faster than other countries in the same income class per capita income

Here’s the 5-Year GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Forecast of the Breakout Nations
Philippines:  6.0% GDP Growth 2012-16
Indonesia:    6.5% GDP Growth 2012-16
Poland:        4.0% GDP Growth 2012-16
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management

Below is the IMF GDP Growth Forecasts
                      2012    2013       2017
Indonesia         6.1%    6.1%       7.0% 
Philippines       4.2%    4.7%       5.0%
Turkey             2.3%    3.2%       4.6%  Source: Breakout nations by Ruchir Sharma

All 3 countries favored by Morgan Stanley also belong to Goldman Sach's Next 11 group of emerging economies.