Ruchir Sharma, the head of Morgan Stanley’s Emerging Markets favors TIPs
over BRICs
Ruchir Sharma, the head of Morgan Stanley’s Emerging
Markets says rapid growth can’t be sustained and it’s time to look for the next
decade’s big growers for big returns. For the last decade it’s all about “BRICs”
or Brazil, Russia, India
and China,
but after a decade of rapid growth, the world’s most celebrated emerging
markets are poised to slow down.
In his interviews, Mr. Sharma, defines a “Breakout
Nation” as:
a. a country that is able to beat expectations in terms of growth
rate
b. a country that’s able to grow faster than other countries in the
same income class per capita income
Here’s the 5-Year GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Forecast of the Breakout Nations
Philippines: 6.0%
GDP Growth 2012-16
Indonesia: 6.5% GDP Growth
2012-16
Poland: 4.0% GDP Growth 2012-16
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Below is the IMF GDP Growth Forecasts
2012 2013 2017
Indonesia 6.1% 6.1% 7.0%
Philippines 4.2% 4.7% 5.0%
Turkey
2.3% 3.2% 4.6% Source: Breakout nations by Ruchir Sharma
All 3 countries favored by Morgan Stanley also belong to Goldman Sach's Next 11 group of emerging economies.
